>> Betting on casinos for economic growth will be a big gamble. Low taxes intended to entice the gambling industry to build “destination casinos” in Florida will reduce the state’s revenue take, and increased sales tax revenue will not make up the difference if gamblers rarely step outside the casinos for shopping and dining. Growing competition among casinos will shrink their market shares, and new casinos will tend to steal customers from older ones without increasing the number of gamblers visiting an area. These factors have contributed to a 30 percent decline in Atlantic City’s casino revenue since 2006 and with fewer gamblers driving to the city, municipal bonds issued for highway construction have been downgraded. Believing that government intervention will be necessary to revive Atlantic City’s fortunes, Gov. Christie has led a state takeover of the tourism district, despite public skepticism about the expanded role of Trenton. -- Sarasota Herald Tribune: Would gambling expansion jump start state tourism? (Zak Anderson), 21Feb2011 Bloomberg: Christie’s Atlantic City takeover seeks to halt 30% casino plunge (Terrence Dopp and Beth Jinks), 18March2011 >> Florida’s appeal as a travel destination will be damaged for years to come because of the BP spill, predicts a leader of the state’s Restaurant and Lodging Association. Florida’s strength is “sunshine, beautiful beaches, blue water and seafood. That brand has been damaged,” he says, “and the impacts will last many years.” While much of the oil pumped into Gulf waters has been digested by bacteria, oil that has seeped into the beaches and coastal wetlands will be longer lasting because bacteria buried in sand and muck have less access to oxygen. Recurring reports of beach contamination will cause tourists -- especially those from outside the U.S. -- to look elsewhere for vacation spots. Damage to the natural habitat will also persist. It will take generations before populations of fish, aquatic mammals and birds will return to pre-spill levels, and the possibility will linger that the chemicals released by bacteria as they digest oil will be a threat to human and animal health. -- St. Petersburg Times: Tourism industry will feel effects of gulf oil spill for years. (Steve Huettel), 07Jan2011; ate: Will the Gulf ever be oil-free? (Brian Palmer), 04Jan2011 >> Inter-generational travel will increase in the U.S., as grandparents take more trips with their children and grandchildren. This trend has been observed in Europe for years and will become a more important segment of the U.S. market as the adult population ages. With families traveling together, there will be an increased demand for roomier accomodations, family-style restaurants, attractions with youth appeal, and a preference for vacation destinations that can be reached by car and SUV. The cruise ship business will also attract its share of extended family travel. Inter-generational vacations will require more planning and a longer booking window than is the norm for leisure travel by individuals and couples who often arrange trips on the spur-of-the moment. -- Knowledge@Wharton: Changing nature of leisure travel. 05Jan2011 >> Business travel will recover before leisure travel, predict Orlando travel officials. The convention business is expected to pick up in 2012 as the economy strengthens. Even The opening of Universal’s Wizarding World of Harry Potter will help revive business travel by giving meeting-and-convention planners a reason to revisit Orlando — and prompt convention goers to bring their families along when they return.-- Orlando Sentinel: Tourism forecast: Slight growth in 2011 (Sara K. Clarke), 25July2010 >> Tourism will be a major growth industry for Florida, as Chinese families begin to travel abroad. One million Chinese tourists visiting the U.S. for two weeks would produce $6 billion per year in revenue, according to Stanford economist Lawrence Lau. A significant, persistent rise in Chinese tourism will significantly narrow the U.S.-China trade deficit. Foreseeing this potential, Disney is building a chain of language schools in China that employs its famous cartoon characters to instruct Chinese youths in English. –- Bloomberg: M-I-C-K-E-Y M-O-U-S-E teaches China English, love of Disney. 12May 2011 Slate: When policy solutions don’t work (Daniel Gross), 10July10 >> Brazil will become a two-way flow for the tourism industry, attracting tourists and providing them, as tens of millions of Brazilians achieve middle class earning power. Four million Brazilians traveled abroad in 2009. Of these, 32% went to Europe, 22% to the United States and the rest to Latin America. Florida drew a significant share of these. The middle class in Brazil – as everywhere - expects to travel. “It is now considered part of the ordinary basket of consumer purchases, “ says Taleb Rifai of the World Tourism Organization, “It’s not just in developed countries, it is part of the global culture.” -- Knowledge@Wharton: Demographic change – a catalyst for new models in the global tourism industry. 14July2010 >> Florida will lose out as a favored international tourist destination because of costly, complicated visa requirements. The U.S. lost a third of its market share in global tourism over the past decade, but it could rise by 50 percent over the next five years if visa procedures were simplified. Obtaining visas can be daunting in countries not on the U.S. visa waiver list -- a group that includes those with fast-growing middle class populations such as Brazil, India and China. A typical Brazilian family wanting to visit the U.S. would pay more than $2,000 in upfront costs and wait two or three months for their applications to be processed. Bureaucratic delays also make it difficult for Brazilian business travelers to make quick trips to visit U.S. companies. The loss of market share damages the economy because tourism is the one sector where the U.S. runs a healthy trade surplus of over $20 billion, making up a quarter of all exports in the service category. Each foreign visitor spends about $4,000, estimates the U.S. Travel Association. -- Slate: America’s looming tourism crisis (Martha C. White), 23Nov2010 >> Florida will become a top gambling destination, with a market potential as high as $4 to $6 billion. As gambling has become a mainstream pastime more popular than football, Florida’s revenues already rank third or fourth in the U.S., behind Las Vegas, Atlantic City, and perhaps the Chicago metro region. In a “game changing” deal with the Seminoles, gambling will expand greatly in Florida, especially in the coastal and resort areas. The deal will allow the tribe to operate casino-style card games and slot machines in exchange for more than $ 1 billion over the next five years. The state’s 27 dog tracks, horse tracks and jai alai frontons will also be allowed to install slot machines and other gaming devices. As part of the compact, 23 casinos and pari-mutuels parlors will set up no limit poker tables to cater to high rollers – a move that will propel Florida into one of the premiere poker destinations in the country, predicts gaming industry analysts. -- Palm Beach Post:South Florida turning into a gambling strips (Charles Passy), 27Nov09; Miami Herald: Gambling is as important as tourism to Florida's economy -- $2.2 billion comes from slot machines, pari-mutuels and the lottery. (Mary Ellen Klas), 29Nov09; Sarasota Herald Tribune: State, Seminoles hit $1 billion gambling deal. (Lloyd Dunkelberger), 07Apr10; Sarasota Herald Tribune: Florida raises poker stakes. (David Ball), 06July10 >> Disney will be one of the big potential winners from the planned rail service linking Orlando International Airport with Lakeland and Tampa by 2015, with side stops at Disney and the Orange County Convention Center. Some transportation planners question Disney’s commitment to the train concept because its Magical Express bus system, which now carries 2.2 million passengers a year between OIA and their Disney hotels, deters visitors from renting cars for excursions to non-Disney attractions. However, a successful train service will draw even more tourists to the Disney complex by making it easier for people in the Tampa Bay region to make day trips. Eventually, extending the rail line east from OIA, close to a port and down Interstate 95 to Miami will ink Disney with its cruise lines and open the South Florida market. “The Miami route could be the most profitable route in the country,” predicts one prominent backer. Timetable for the extension may be speeded up as Central Florida highways become more congested, leaving the Magical Express stuck in traffic on Interstate 4 as the train speeds by in the median. -- Orlando Sentinel/The Daily Disney: Is Disney fully on board with plans for high-speed rail? (Dan Tracy), 03May10 >> Huge Disney cruise ships, the Dream and the Fantasy, each carrying up to 4,000 passengers, will require expanded port and transportation facilities to handle the arrivals and departures. The two ships will boost Disney Cruise Line’s passenger capacity by almost 75 percent. A direct rapid rail link between OIA and Port Canaveral will significantly reduce highway traffic on already congested routes. – Florida Today: Port Canaveral building terminal for 4,000 passenger Disney cruise ships.(Keilani Best), 07Sept2010 >> Florida's seasonal rental businesses will see lingering impact from the recession, and the BP catastrophe. Lead times will continue to be short, with many renters deciding only a few weeks ahead, instead of several months. Shorter lead times will make the business more difficult to manage. The Gulf region's 269 thousand jobs in the tourism business will be jeopardized if the beaches are severely damaged by the oil spill. -- Sarasota Herald Tribune: Southwest Florida vacation rentals adjust to post 9/11 realities. (Kevin L. McQuaid), 30Nov09; Examiner: BP oil spill -- Florida's tourism suffers. 03July10; Miami Herald: In Pensacola Beach, business plunges amid oil crisis. (Douglas Hanks), 04July10; Orlando Sentinel: The trend toward last minute reservations will continue to make forecasting difficult. (Sara K. Clarke), 25July2010 >> MIA's position as an international airline hub will be bolstered by an immigrant population in South Florida that is growing both in numbers and diversity. The relative proximity to the entire Caribbean and Latin America will be a major competitive advantage. A heavy volume of traffic between MIA and many countries throughout the Hemisphere will make the routes more profitable for airlines. Growing economic stability in the region will make the profits more dependable. -- South Florida Sun-Sentinel: American adding flights, destinations to Miami hub. (Jaclyn Giovia), 03Dec09. LINK TO PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS ABOUT TRAVEL AND TOURISM |
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