>> Florida will foot the bill for high speed rail projects in other states, which will then reap the rewards in both the short and long run. Florida will see significant job creation and transportation system upgrades go to competing state economies on the east and west coasts. If Gov. Scott had invited bids for the Tampa-Orlando leg from the eight worldwide private rail consortia, it is possible that the costs of construction and operation could have been shifted to the private sector, wholly or in part. The preemptive killing off of the initial route will probably doom the plan for the entire Tampa to Miami HSR service. -- Sarasota Herald Tribune: Rail decision was an act of fiscal self-immolation (Sean Snaith), 21Feb2011 : St. Petersburg Times: Scott’s rejection of high speed rail will be costly to Florida’s future (Robert Trigaux), 20Feb2011 >> Florida voters and politicians will continue to postpone the inevitable, only to pay a much higher price in the end. The rejection of voters in Hillsborough County of a penny tax to support Tampa Bay regional mass transit means that when chronic traffic congestion begins to stifle the economy, the cost of building an alternative system will have risen significantly. If Florida can no longer afford to make the necessary investment, the economy will be suffer long-term damage. -- St. Petersburg Times: Florida’s culture is one of follower, not leader. (Robert Trigaux), 16Jan2011. >> The Tampa to Orlando HSR line will be “too big to fail” unless strict limits are placed on taxpayer subsidies. Once construction begins, it will be nearly impossible to stop, regardless of the almost certain cost overruns. Limiting the initial phase to the Orlando tourist shuttle segment (OIA to International Drive and Disney World) will attract more riders than the Tampa-Orlando route, which could be built later, “ in the unlikely event that there is enough left of the $2.7 billion” argues the authors of the highly critical Reason Foundation report. -- Reason Foundation: The Tampa to Orlando High Speed Rail Project: Florida Taxpayer Risk Assessment (Wendell Cox and Robert W. Poole, Jr), January 2011 >> Florida’s HSR project will have an advantage in attracting major private financing if it is the first in the U.S. Foreign vendors will be willing to pay the state’s share of building and maintaining the Orlando-Tampa leg (an estimated $280 million) in expectation that other states will then follow Florida’s lead. “There’s a tremendous amount we can get from these companies,” one state senator predicted. ‘They want this deal. We are the first in the country to take on such a project. … We have an unbelievable amount of leverage.” St. Petersburg Times: Building high speed rail will give Florida an economic edge. (Janet Zink), 12Jan2011. >> High speed rail will fall victim to Republican ideology long hostile to subsidized passenger rail service. Only a successful project in some Red state will change the political dynamic, argue rail advocates. While the most plausible projects in the Midwest are likely to be terminated, a route that links Disney World, a convention center, a major airport and two of Florida’s biggest cities could be a sound commercial proposition, especially when the federal government pays most of the bill. -- The Economist: Running out of steam. 11Dec2010. >> Florida and California will be winners if other states reject high speed rail money. Reallocation gives Florida $320 million more for its project. At least seven teams are potential bidders, including most of the leaders in HSR technology -- Mitsubishi, Siemens, Bombardier, Amtrak and France’s SNCF. The companies will pay what would be the taxpayers’ share and cover any cost overruns, operations and maintenance. There will also be a “Buy America” provision in the contract that will bring jobs to Florida and possibly the plants to manufacture the cars and maintain them. Strong political support within the state will make it difficult for incoming Republic governor Rick Scott to cancel the project. Public enthusiasm for HSR in Florida and California, once service in begins, will induce other states to catch up. -- NPR: States move ahead with high speed rail (Greg Allen), 18Dec2010. >> The SunRail project will have enough political support to prevent its easy derailment. Prominent politicians have built a strong coalition in the Florida legislature and many Central Florida businesses expect to benefit from the project. Two Orlando hospitals have included the rail line in their future development plans and foresee thousands of patients and workers arriving by train each day. A decision to scuttle the project will alienate many in the politically influential i-4 corridor, where commuters are increasingly concerned about chronic traffic congestion. SunRail is more popular than the high-speed rail link between Tampa and Orlando which makes sense only if the line is extended all the way to Miami. -- Orlando Sentinel: Opposing SunRail could cost Scott. (Beth Kassab), 30 Nov2010 >> Commuter rail will encourage new development projects by cutting costs. Connecting Orlando’s Florida Hospital to the planned SunRail will allow development of the adjacent area to proceed, adding residential housing, retail shops, restaurants and perhaps a hotel. Without the commuter rail link the hospital will have difficulty handling additional traffic (estimated at 10,000 people a day) unless it builds more parking garages (at $12,000 a space) and pays huge impact fees for widening roads and adding a lane at the I-4 interchange. Take away the SunRail connection and the entire project becomes less viable because of added costs and public opposition to increased traffic on already congested roadways. -- See >> As the cost of owning and driving a car continues to inch up, rail travel will become more popular with commuters, tourists and Florida’s aging population. Higher gas prices, climbing insurance rates and stiff parking fees will combine to alter the the preference of auto over public transport. Senior will also begin to choose rail travel as driving becomes more difficult and expensive. -- Orlando Sentinel: Orlando to imitate European-style train network? (Dan Tracy), 15Oct2010 >> High-speed rail will become a popular way to travel within Florida, especially for mid-range distances of 100 to 500 miles. But high speed rail will need dedicated tracks (not shared with freight trains) and its own safety-related infrastructure. Impediments will be tight federal and state budgets, competition for funds with highways and airports, and a shortage of engineering expertise within the U.S. Because there has been so little investment in domestic passenger rail in recent years, the U.S. does not have any industry left on which to build for the future. -- Scientific American: Will Federal stimulus money spark a high speed rail renaissance in the U.S.? (Larry Greenemeier), 23Nov09; Technology Review: China's high speed rail revolution -- dedicated lines are the key to record-breaking speeds. (Peter Fairley), 11Jan10; Miami Herald: Making tracks - international companies covet Florida's high speed rail business (Joseph A. Mann, Jr) 08Aug2010. >> Rapid rail will hasten the growth and integration of Florida's mega-region, where most of the state's economic expansion will occur. Economists predict it will generate $2.9 billion a year in new business, $1.7 billion annually in gross regional product, and create 276,500 more jobs. The arrival of rapid rail service will encourage mixed use, high density development near stations (such as the Medical City tech park near both the airport and planned railroad station), broaden the regional labor market to include Tampa and Lakeland (enabling those with specialized skills to commute to jobs outside their immediate locales), support the growth of technology clusters (by facilitating job mobility and knowledge transfer), boost productivity by reducing travel time (by offering alternatives to congested highways), and increase the number of visitors from adjacent communities who will spend money at hotels, restaurants and retail shops. -- The Atlantic: Mega-regions and high-speed rail (Richard Florida), 04May09; America2050: Wherehigh speed rail works best (Yoav Hagler, PetraTodorovich) 07Sept09; Cleantechnica: High speed rail to improve social cohesion and competitiveness (Zachary Shahan), 10March2010; St. Petersburg Times: Planning for a ‘super region’ in central Florida’s future. (Robert Trigaux), 20June2010; U.S. Conference of Mayors: The Economic impacts of high speed rail on cities and their metropolitan areas. July 2010 >> Miami will attract the innovation and wealth that tends to gravitate to well-connected "global cities". Much of Miami's remarkable economic and demographic growth is the result of its role as the primary economic and cultural bridge between the Caribbean and Latin America. Cities that are part of an economic network are able to exploit economies of scale, pool resources, improve efficiency, and gain a competitive advantage over less well-connected cities. Florida's high speed rail will expand Miami's cultural and economic network to include the universities, incubators and high tech companies that cluster around Tampa and Orlando. -- Financial Times: High speed trains will transform Europe. (Simon Kuper), 26/27June2010; New Geography: Cities -- size does not matter much anymore. (Zachary Neal), 08Sept2010 >> Rapid rail will expand the tax base of the communities located along its route. Developers can be induced to build mixed-use, high density projects that will generate jobs, helping to revive the moribund construction sector. Property values will tend to increase near new railroad stations and rising values will enlarge the tax base, reducing the need for local governments to cut budgets or raise taxes. Regional Plan Association: The ARC effect – how better transit boosts home values and regional economies. July 2010 >> Extending high speed rail to Miami will be critical to the project’s economic viability, and will cost at least $8 billion. The extension, planned to be completed by 2018, will link the Tampa –Orlando leg to a major gateway for international tourism. Without this final link, the rapid rail system will be a regional line serving only Central Florida and the Tampa Bay area and will be unable to attract enough passengers to produce the necessary revenue. Florida will need to raise $1.1 billion to build the Tampa-Orlando leg, and an additional $250 million to resume long-discontinued service between Miami and Jacksonville. -- Orlando Sentinel: Is Disney fully on board with plans for high speed rail? (Dan Tracy), 03May10; Miami Herald: Florida seeks $8B more to build bullet train. (Alfonso Chardy), 28Aug2010. >> Florida will have a 50/50 chance of completing its rapid rail project because it will be relatively cheap to build. HSR will be built on flat terrain that presents few engineering obstacles and will be routed through sparsely developed areas. Much of that land has already been acquired, and previously allocated funds will cover much of the projected cost. Florida will adopt proven technology extensively used in Europe, Japan and China, but much of the equipment will be manufactured in the U.S., employing American workers. The prospect that tens of thousand of jobs will be created, both short-term and permanent, will attract public support for the project, making it difficult for Republican elected officials to refuse federal funding. Neither will railroads oppose the project, because HSR will not share tracks with freight trains. Upon its completion, the Tampa-Orlando route will be an early test of demand for rapid rail, and success in Florida will build support for similar projects elsewhere in the U.S. -- See Cmap of of these predictions
>> Tampa to Miami rapid rail service will be the most profitable route in the U.S. Extending the Tampa-Orlando leg to Miami will enable tourists to more easily visit attractions in both south and central Florida, and provide Disney cruise passengers a direct link from OIA to Port Canaveral. As tourists extend their stays in Florida, they will spend more at hotels, restaurants and retail shops. But without the extension to Miami, the project will be unable to attract enough riders to make it financially viable. . Failure of rapid rail in Florida will undermine similar efforts elsewhere in the U.S., stifle new job creation and deprive the state of critical transportation infrastructure. – Huffington Post: Would Florida imperil the future of high speed rail? (John Petro), 10Aug2010; Miami Herald: Florida seeks $1B more to build bullet train – state officials ask for more federal money to build a bullet train system that would touch Tampa, Orlando and Miami. (Alfonso Chardy), 28Aug2010 >> HSR will likely fail if the route ends at Orlando’s airport. Ridership will fall short of expectations as business people and leisure travelers find alternatives more convenient. Barriers to acceptance among business travelers will include the failure to connect HSR with SunRail in downtown Orlando, the bypassing of TPA, the lack of inter-modal connections at many HSR stations, and the short-driving distances between the most distant points on the route. HSR will fail to lure drivers from the SUVs in which may be “the most car-centric suburban cluster in the country” and will do little to reduce local sprawl and congestion. Neither will HSR have strong appeal for leisure travelers. While some day-trippers will ride HSR from Tampa to the Disney stop in Orlando, most vacationing families arriving at OIA with luggage and small children will prefer the convenience of the Magic Kingdom Express bus over HSR. See Cmap of these predictions. >> New railroad projects will be blocked by continuing political gridlock. Obama Administration proposal to raise money through higher gasoline taxes will be opposed by the oil industry and members of Congress from oil producing states. The Florida Legislature has already raided the road building fund to plug the deficit hole in the state’s budget, and further diversion of funds to HSR and light rail will be difficult. Moreover, Republicans will stymie any job creation measure that might benefit Obama politically. -- Florida Times Union: Florida’s next governor will face key transportation issues. (Brandon Larrabee), 09Oct2010; Salon: Republicans are rejecting infrastructure spending because they think it's good politics to do so right now. (Joan Walsh), 11Oct2010; The Florida Independent: Who should pay for high speed rail? (Trav is Pillow), 11Oct2010; New York Times: Obama pushes transportation spending. (Jackie Calmes), 12Oct2010 >> The public will be reluctant to spend more on high speed rail and other transportation infrastructure projects as concern mounts about government spending and the deficit. A recent Pew survey found that most respondents in Florida and four other states supported, by large margins, a proposal to cut the state and local transportation budgets and opposed additional transportation funding. -- New Geography: Living in denial about transportation funding. (Ken Orski), 20Oct2010 >> Tampa to Orlando HSR route will fail financially without the light rail connection vetoed by the voters in Hillsborough County, in the view of Congressman John Mica. He believes the route between the Orlando Airport and Disney World will attract large numbers of tourists, and the vastly more expensive route to Miami deserves further study, provided the private sector is willing to invest heavily in the project. The Siemens consortium has promised to put up at least $300 million. -- see Orlando Sentinel: Maybe high speed rail should be built in phases, Mica suggests. (Dan Tracy), 08Nov2010. >> Florida’s rapid rail system will not connect to Atlanta (and other points outside the state) unless it goes through Jacksonville. Once Florida extends rapid rail from Orlando to Miami, the Jacksonville connection would be next. Plans for a bus and rail hub are still tentative, but some advocates believe that an airport connection is essential for success. Federal funding for the Jacksonville phase will depend on the popularity of the Tampa-Orlando leg of the system, which is the first to be built. -- Florida Times Union: Get ready, Jacksonville. high speed rail is coming. (Larry Hannan), 19Oct2010 |
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