A running compilation of predictions about the issues and events that will influence Florida's political, economic and social agendas in the years to come

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Transportation

>> Inter-city bus service will expand in Florida, providing alternatives to congested interstate driving and costly, undependable airline service. It will also partly substitute for the ill-fated HSR project.  Fleets of comfortable, new GPS-equipped busses offering wide, declining seats, onboard restrooms, wi-fi and tv will attract higher-income travelers by offering convenient curbside service that bypasses seedy old  terminals. The rapid growth of this mode of inter-city travel is market-driven, not dependent on government subsidies, but benefits the environment by conserving energy and reducing pollution. -- New Geography: Here comes the bus -- America’s fastest-growing form of intercity travel. (Joseph Schwieterman  22Apr2011   

>> Much of future job growth will occur near major airports. Jobs in the areas nearest to busy airports are being created at 7 times the rate of those created in traditional downtown business districts, according to one recent study. The rate of job creation at the peripheries of big airports was 1.5 times that at the city centers. One in six Americans work within five miles of the 25 busiest U.S. hubs. Miami ranks fourth in cargo volume among domestic airports, and about even with Singapore’s Changi.  Both handle more cargo than London’s Heathrow and Amsterdam’s Schipol, the latter initially conceived and developed as an “airport city” with excellent commuter and long-distance rail connections.  Schipol has become the financial center of the Netherlands, attracting more than 1,000 companies to adjacent office buildings that charge the highest rents in the country. -- SNL: “Aerotropolis” trend drives real estate development (William Kemble-Diaz, 30March2011)

>> A planned airline hub in Central America will threaten MIA’s regional role.  “Central American will eventually have a major hub.  It’s a question of where, not if” predicts economist Paul Romer.  His proposed hub in Honduras will bring “Central America and Latin America into the world-wide network of air traffic,” he argues.   Patterned after the dozens of new airport-centered cities under construction around the world, this “aerotroplis” will have a large airport at its core, surrounded by trade related factories and companies, hotels and shopping malls for business travelers, and residential neighborhoods for employees.  These airport-centric cities will compete among themselves and with the older airports that once dominated air commerce, such as London, Frankfurt and Paris.  Miami’s limited ability to expand capacity will embolden new airports to the South to seek hub status.  “Everyone wants to be the hub,” explains one observer. “No one wants to be the spokes.” -- Wall Street Journal:  Aerotropolis -- the airport-based global city of tomorrow. (Greg Lindsay), 26Feb2011 ; Metropolis Magazine: Review of Aerotropolis -- The Way We’ll Live Next (Karrie Jacobs), 14Feb2011

>> Young people will prefer living in places with good mass transit. Florida cities will lose out if they lack efficient options to automobiles. Market research firm J.D. Power found that many teenagers and young people just starting to work have little interest in owning cars. Many do not know how to drive, preferring bicycles, motor bikes, and public transportation. Part of the reason is economic – cars are expensive to buy, insure and operate, especially for those who are unemployed or earning low starter wages. The generation also views automobiles as an environmental threat and the widespread popularity of social media makes it less necessary to physically congregate. “Demotorization” is already beginning in Japan where – for the first time -- auto ownership is declining – most notably among young people living in Tokyo and other urban areas. – Kicking Tires blog:  Millennials have little interest in cars. (Stephen Markley), 09Oct09 

>> Commuter busses will be the most practical mode of urban mass transit in Florida, as higher gas prices prompt people to abandon faraway suburbs and long drives to work. While high speed rail will be planned for inter-city travel, rail transit will be very costly to build from scratch, and only Miami has even a limited light rail system today. Bus transit only requires the purchase of the equipment and some modification of streets and highways to provide right-of-way lanes. Hybrid electric busses, with their smoother acceleration and deceleration, will be the preferred technology in modernizing Florida’s urban transportation. – Alternative Energy Stocks: Another look at the heavy duty bus industry (Tom Konrad), 04Oct09
Subpages (1): Commuter and Rapid Rail