A running compilation of predictions about the issues and events that will influence Florida's political, economic and social agendas in the years to come

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Technology and Industry

>> USF’s patent dominance will bolster region's economic growth. In 2010, USF researchers were granted 83 patents, making it one of the 14 most productive universities in the world. It was the only Florida university to make the list and ranked above such research powerhouses as the University of Michigan and University of Pennsylvania.  A large number of U.S. patents awarded to an institution -- or even a region -- identifies it as a hot spot of technological innovation and possible economic growth. -- St. Petersburg Times:  USF’s on a patent roll, a sign of rising innovation. (Robert Trigaux), 22June2011

>> Entrenched biotech clusters in Florida will impede efforts of other regions to gain a foothold.  Because of the high failure rates of biotech start-ups, potential employees will prefer to work in areas with a high concentration of similar companies.  Correspondingly, start-ups will prefer to locate in areas with a large concentration of potential employees. --  Sarasota Herald Tribune: Hiring and retaining biotech workers are made more difficult by lack of similar companies in region.  (Doug Sword), 27June2011.  

>> Florida’s biotech ambitions will suffer from budget cutbacks in Tallahassee and D.C. Reduced federal funding for research will set off intense competition among medical schools and independent labs. Florida will not escape the new austerity, and the state’s own budget problems will severely limit the help that the Legislature can provide.  As local communities are asked to make up the shortfall, doubts will surface about the economic payoff they can expect from their investment of scarce tax dollars.  Hillsborough County’s evaluation of Jackson Lab’s request for assistance concluded that a $100 million incentive package would yield a direct return of $87 million over 20 years.  Given the high risk and long lead times in bringing new drugs to market,  it will be many years before most biotech ventures in Florida willl be financially viable on their own.
-- Sarasota Herald Tribune:  Jackson Laboratory a series of questions yet unanswered (Matthew Sauer), 07March2011  St. Petersburg Times: An ecstatic Sarasota recruits Jackson Lab, but can it pay for such a rich deal? (Robert Trigaux), 06March2011

>>The “patent productivity” of a university will influence the economic fortunes of its home region, according to the Patent Board which each year ranks universities in the U.S. for research quality and productivity. The 2010 Universities Patent Scorecard ranks UCF in eighth place, and in previous years has often been among the top ten.   As UCF gains recognition for its strong portfolio of “high impact” patents, clusters of startup companies will be formed to commercialize the inventions, drawing upon the expertise within the university and offering jobs to UCF graduates. – Intellectual Property Today: The Patent Scorecard™ 2010 – Universities. (Tammy D’Amato, Lindsey Gilroy and Perry Bassett), September 2010; Enterprise Florida: Florida’s Economic Competitiveness 2008  (See Cmap of this prediction.)

>> Diversifying the economy will lag without public investment in green tech. "It seems to be the next big wave," says UCF economist Sean Snaith, noting that this is one of the sectors expected to see significant new job creation. Yet the state does not rank in the Top 10, according to industry observers, in part because of inaction in Tallahassee. "We've got to have some skin in the game to push this industry along. It's going to require the same type of effort that we saw in the biosciences." -- Sarasota Herald Tribune: State lags in coaxing green jobs (Zac Anderson), 06Jan10.

>> Manufacturing will be critical to successful diversification. It will stimulate increased research and development and create most of the jobs for a trained workforce. Productivity growth and innovation will both depend on a revival of manufacturing. Past productivity gains have been grossly exaggerated because the calculation excludes the overseas employees who are doing the work that was once done by U.S. workers. This illusion of productivity growth masks the fact that since the 1960s, the American economy has, in fact, become much less productive and innovative. -- New York Times: Trading away productivity

 (Alan Tonelson and Kevin L. Kearns), 05Mar10.


>> Private sector demand for modeling and simulation professionals will surpass the demand in the entertainment and video game industry combined. Private industry is beginning to recognize the “game-changing nature of 3-D graphics,”  said one corporate source. Central Florida became  the epicenter of the gaming and simulation industry when the military began to heavily invest in the field.  Florida has the nation’s fifth highest concentration of schools preparing students for jobs in the industry, and the starting wage for most new graduates is $50,000 or more. The market is expected to remain strong for at least a decade. -- Florida Today: Simulation sizzles -- Central Florida becomes hot spot for video game, simulator designs. (Patrick Peterson), 03Oct2010

>> Central Florida’s training-simulation industry, a large cluster of more than 100 private companies and government agencies, will add up to 1,500 jobs a year to a workforce that numbers between 20 and 25 thousand people. The sector has been cushioned from the severity of the Great Recession by increased Pentagon spending related to the military missions in Iraq and Afghanistanand the proximity of major DOD training contract agencies in Orange County. Orlando's potential for future growth in the already strong training and simulation sector, was recognized when Lockheed Martin, the largest player in the defense high tech training business, consolidated these operations in Orlando. -- Orlando Sentinel:High-tech training industry says it could absorb many shuttle job losses. (Richard Burnett), 17Mar10; Orlando Sentinel: Lockheed gives Orlando a promotion as training unit expands. (Richard Burnett), 02June10)

>> The future of modeling and simulation in Central Florida will depend on finding uses outside defense, such as health care and biological research. One of the most promising fields is medical robotics and simulation training for surgeons and other health care professionals. With the upcoming retirement of the space shuttle – and the loss of thousands of high-paying jobs at Kennedy Space Center and surrounding companies -- modeling and simulation is seen as one way the region can retain some of those jobs and potentially compete for a slice of the $40 million in federal funds slated to help the Space Coast recover from the shuttle retirement. But as the field expands – into areas like medical technologies – and competition from Virginia and other states increases, the industry will need to beef up its political and marketing muscle. -- Orlando Sentinel:Region’s simulation industry enjoys rapidly growing clout (Mark K. Matthews and Robert Block,) 05July10; Inside Florida High Tech Corridor:Industry spotlight – Modeling, simulation and training. July 2010;  Orlando Sentinel: Central Florida poised to become a leader in health care training using computer modeling and simulation. 29July2010.

>> UCF College of Medicine will outpace other medical schools in developing applications for simulation, engineering and optics – because of UCF’s prominence in these technologies.  “Other medical schools would like to go in these directions, but we have the strengths of UCF to take advantage of these new areas of research,” claims Deborah German, dean of the College. With $18 million in funding so far, the UCF medical school  is becoming a research engine, where discoveries have the potential of leading to start-up companies or patents which pay dividends to the university for years.. -- Orlando Sentinel: UCF med school builds reputation for research (Linda Shrieves), 29Aug2010

>> Florida’s attempt to jump-start a biotech industry will produce a disappointing number of high-paying jobs.  Florida taxpayers and donors have committed $1.6 billion over the past decade to lure research firms – about $800,000 for every promised employee. The latest effort is the proposed $260 million of state and local cash incentive to lure Jackson Laboratory to Collier County with the distant prospect of 7,500 new jobs. However, the eight labs that have set up shop since 2003 have so far hired less than a thousand people and most of these are prominent researchers recruited from outside the state, even the U.S.  Much of the local hiring will be limited to lower-paying jobs as lab assistants and non-technical support workers. In general, b

iotechnology will not grow to the size of large pharmaceutical or information technology companies.  They will create only a limited number of jobs and even fewer that are high paying. 

-- The Scientist.com:  The biotech contrarian (Keith Steinriede), March 2007; News-Press.com: Collier County a likely investor in famous lab, but will new jobs follow? South Florida Sun-Sentinel: Scripps Florida -- Hyped bio-tech boom went bust (Stephen Goldstein), 18July2010


>> 
Florida may be able to recruit the best and brightest to its new research labs, but they won’t stay long because the state lacks deep roots in technology and culture. The biotech clusters have yet to develop the network of suppliers and support services that top researchers expect to find, and most cities are devoid of the diverse cultural offerings available in major urban centers. Moreover, Florida’s image as a low wage state with inferior schools, weird politics and demographics skewed to the elderly diminishes its appeal to younger professionals who can work anywhere they choose. -- New Geography: Biotech research no silver bullet for Florida (Richard Reep), 10Mar10; Palm BeachPost: Florida needs chic to attract geeks, entrepreneurs say
(Jeff Ostrowski), 05Mar10


> The photonics technology cluster will rapidly expand in central Florida with important new applications in biomedicine, solar energy and other industries of the futures.  Dating from Martin Marietta’s early work with lasers, a photonics cluster began to form around UCF as a leading center for research and training, funded mostly by military and NASA contracts. Over the past four decades about 20 start-ups have been spun off from the university and large defense contractors. Today nearly 300 companies (with about 6,000 employees and $130 million in sales) manufacture a widening array of products as new applications are found in many emerging technologies. Florida’s burgeoning photonics industry will have the entry level workers it needs to grow because of UCF’s offering of a BSEE’s degree that specializes in photonics. --Innovation Insight: 2009 Report on

Florida’s Photonics Cluster;Inside Florida’s High Tech Corridor Newsletter, August 2010

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Raymond Johnson,
Oct 5, 2010 3:08 PM
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Raymond Johnson,
Jan 1, 2011 2:15 PM