A running compilation of predictions about the issues and events that will influence Florida's political, economic and social agendas in the years to come

TO CONTACT

Tax Policy and Politics

>> Lowering Florida’s already low taxes will not be enough to  induce businesses to set up corporate headquarters in the state.  A skilled workforce, good transportation infrastructure and a wealth of cultural and recreational amenities will outweigh low taxes and cheap labor as deciding factors in where companies locate their corporate offices. The decision of Jet Blue to remain in New York instead of relocating to Orlando indicates that taxes are only a marginal consideration. -- Orlando Sentinel:  Lower taxes not key to luring business (Beth Kassab), 20Jan2011

>> The Florida Legislature’s attempts to stimulate job creation by cutting taxes will do nothing but deepen the deficit and exacerbate the state’s already glaring deficiencies in public services
. Tax breaks will fail to produce more jobs because they will not create demand for products and services (the principal reason businesses hire more workers), the savings will more likely to used to bolster company reserves or boost earnings, they are primarily targeted at large employers but three-quarters of Florida’s business employ no more than four workers for which the tax breaks will mean very little. The $35 billion in tax preferences enacted in fiscal 2010-2011 will likely never be recouped. – FloridaCenter for Fiscal and Economic Policy: Tax breaks being considered would digFlorida revenue hole deeper; cause more cuts in services. March 2010;Florida Center for Fiscal and Economic Policy: Tax breaks to create more jobs – what the real story is (John Hall), June 2010

>> Tax breaks to create jobs will be a zero-sum game, with the Florida Legislature deciding who wins and who loses. Tax cuts are another type of government spending and because the state budget must balance, spending money for one purpose means spending less for another. The benefits tend to favor the politically well-connected companies and industries. The losers tend to be the public sector and the small businesses that lack clout in Tallahassee. --Florida Center for Fiscal and Economic Policy: Tax breaks shift money to a few winners and compete for limited state revenue (Alan Stonecipher), April 2010

>> Muni bond rating downgrades will make big job-creating public projects more expensive to finance. S&P, citing Miami’s pension costs and unwillingness to raise taxes, lowered the rating for general obligation bonds – usually backed by property taxes – from A+ to A, and the rating for bonds backed by other revenues from a to BBB+. More costly public works projects will complicate the efforts of local governments to cut expenses and balance their budgets. S&P’s action, following an earlier caution from Moody’s, reflected doubts that Miami will be able to do serious cost cutting. -- Miami Herald: Standard & Poor’s downgradesMiami bond rating by two notches. (Patrcia Mazzei), 17June2010 

>> Continuing slump in commercial real estate will mean higher borrowing costs for local governments in Florida over the next few years, according to Fitch Ratings. With high unemployment and weak consumer spending, the market for hotels, retail stores and office buildings will be slower to recover than in a normal economic cycle. For now, the municipal bonds most at risk are those backed by tax and other revenues from shopping malls and office buildings in resort and retirement areas. With a protracted downturn, problems could broaden to include bonds backed by general hotel or sales tax levied by cities and states.  After Orlando reported an 8 percent drop in hotel occupancy rates in 2009, Fitch downgraded to junk about $220 million worth of bonds backed by hotel and other tourism-related taxes. –- Financial Times: Property slump adds to US muni woes (Nicole Bullock), 02Aug2010