>> The I-4 Corridor will take a left turn in the 2012 elections, some political analysts predict. The shift may include long-time Republican strongholds like Sarasota County (which has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since FDR). Influencing this outcome is discontent with the GOP/Ryan Medicare plan, the hostile immigration stance of the Republican nativist faction (undoing years of effort by Jeb Bush to attract Hispanic support), and the unpopularity of Governor Scott among independents. Scott made Obama an issue during his 2010 campaign. Obama will not miss the chance to retaliate in 2012. -- Democratic Strategist: Florida’s Latino mix offers opportunity for Dems. 26May2011 ; The Buzz: Rick Scott hurting Republican presidential candidates according to poll. 24June2011; DCS Focus: Herald Tribune’s Jeremy Wallace on 2012 elections. June 2011 The Buzz: Charlie Crist as Democrat would “crush” Rick Scott. 28June2011;
>> Political strategies in parts of Florida, as in North Carolina and Virginia, will have to reflect a new dynamics -- a booming minority population, an influx of more moderate voters, and a changing set of priorities. The Republican Party will no longer be able to rely on its tried-and-true“Southern strategy,” an approach to winning elections based largely on appeals to rural whites on cultural touchstones such as abortion and race. -- Washington Post: Republicans brace for a close race in the changing South. (Amy Gardner), 30May2011 >> Florida will see a renewed push for adoption of tough Arizona-type restrictions following the Supreme Court’s partial backing of such measures. Marco Rubio will be torn between his Tea Party allies and the Republican establishment (led by Jeff Bush) who is positioning him as the Hispanic face of the Party. His opposition to a path to citizenship for illegals will further put him at odds with the Hispanic population, including many who are Republicans. The divisiveness of the issue will make it difficult to balance the conflicting positions of the anti-immigration activists and the business community that fears the economic damage that will follow restrictive immigration policies. -- St; Petersburg Times: Tea party wants U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio to step into contentious immigration debate Republicans want to avoid. (Alex Leary), 20May2011 >> Farm workers living in Florida will avoid seasonal jobs in Georgia, fearful of the state’s new anti-immigration law. Georgia’s farmers will be unable to find workers during critical harvest time, causing huge losses for the state’s $1.1 billion industry. The economic toll in Georgia will influence outcome of renewed effort in Florida to adopt Arizona-style measures following the Supreme Court’s go-ahead. -- NPR: Georgia farmers blame new immigration law for lack of workers (Bill Chappell), 27May2011 >> Immigration issues will continue to divide the conservative, rural north from the more cosmopolitan, economically expanding south similar to the split in Arizona between the white-dominated north and the southern section of the state centered around the ethnically diverse, culturally integrated Tucson metro area. -- Palm Beach Post: Business interests played a major role in killing immigration control. (Dara Kam), 10May2011 NPR: A 51st state? Some in Arizona want a split. (Ted Robbins), 09May2011 >> Congressional redistricting in Florida will be a little less dictated by Republican legislative dominance than in the past. Florida’s Fair Districts amendment will limit Republican legislators from splitting counties and other gerrymandering tactics. A “fair” redistricting could grant Democrats up to 10 safe districts and as many as 13 more in which they would be competitive, aligning the Congressional makeup more in line with voter registrations. But such an outcome will depend on dismantling Rep. Corrine Brown’s district that now snakes from Jacksonville to Gainesville to Orlando, and replacing it with one Democratic seat in Jacksonville and two Democratic seats in Orlando. Such a move will be politically disruptive for Democrats and require a legal battle to overcome Republican opposition. -- National Journal: Incumbents, beware -- redistricting was very, very good to House members from both parties a decade ago. Don’t expect it to happen again. (Charlie Cook), 12Feb2011.
>> Redistricting in Florida will be unusually contentious because of the increasing importance of Hispanics to electoral outcomes. The geographical spread of non-Cuban Hispanics in Florida raises the possibility that they could provide just enough votes to give a narrow margin of victory in districts where Democrats have a chance, but produce few Hispanic votes in districts where Democrats don’t stand a chance. Hispanic votes are more strategically “efficient” than black votes, regardless of blacks’ historic loyalty to the Democratic Party in Florida, and the outcome of many electoral races will depend on where Hispanics are allowed to vote. – New York Times: Hispanic-majority districts -- boon or burden for Democrats? (Nate Silver), 23Dec2010 >> Florida’s political dynamics will change as the minority population grows and the Millennial generation (born between 1982 and 2003) makes its weight felt. Year by year, the percentage of non-whites and Millennials will increase, with non-whites eventually constituting about half the U.S. population and one of three voters belonging to the Millennials. Both groups tend to lean Democratic because they favor government activism in solving social and economic problems, and will significantly influence elections as their numbers expand, especially in coastal regions and the Southwest. -- New Geography: Shifting voter demographics -- America is a different country (Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais) 26Oct2010 >> The rapid growth of Latinos in Florida and other Southern states will have the paradoxical effect of strengthening the political clout of Republicans over the next decade, as GOP-controlled state legislatures will redraw state and Congressional voting districts after the 2010 Census. Half of Florida’s growth since the prior Census is due to an increase in its Hispanic population, which tends to favor Democratic candidates. Yet the state will likely see an increase in Republican office holders, unless efforts to curb gerrymandering succeeds. In the long run, the growth of Latino communities in the South is part of a long-term demographic shift that will likely benefit Democrats.-- Institute for Southern Studies: GOP poised to gain clout in South due to surging Latino population. (Chris Kromm), 05Oct2010
>> 2010 election will lead to a less partisan politics if gerrymandering is outlawed by the passage of amendments 5 and 6. More competitiveness in legislative and congressional races will force candidates to stake more centrist positions that more accurately reflects the electorate. As Florida gradually becomes younger and more racially diverse, the influence of aging white conservatives will wane. –Tampa Tribune: 2010 election may be pivotal (William March), 29August2010 >> Pay and benefits of public sector employees will be cut back to be aligned with the private sector. The 34 percent higher wages and 64 percent higher benefit costs for state and local employees, compared to private sector workers, will encounter increasing resistance from financially stressed taxpayers who will demand that officials find ways to lower the costs of providing public education and municipal services. One approach will be a two-tier wage structure in which new hires are paid lower wages and required to contribute to their own pension accounts. Retirement age will also be raised and job security made dependent on job performance. –See Frontline Thoughts: The chance of a double dip (Garry Shilling), 18Sept2010 |
Political Trends and Issues |
