This compilation of predictions is not just a list but a relational database that is structured as a network of predictions. Predictions belong in networks because they rarely stand alone. A prediction is typically linked to another prediction, either as a cause or consequence. Predictions are most persuasive when we can see a clear path from here to there. They are more likely to influence our thinking about the future when we can envision the connectedness of future events ... when we can imagine plausible scenarios of "if...then" contingencies. Whenever predictions are found linked in a source document, they are linked in the database, as well. Most predictions are linked to at least one other; a few are linked to many, producing a trail of conjecture that branches out in several directions. This pattern of connectivity produces a network that is represented by Cmaps, a tool for constructing conceptual models of knowledge domains. (Networks are widely used to model systems in biology and economics.) Predictions are a form of knowledge because they encapsulate what we know -- or think we know -- about how the world works. Cmaps display predictions as nodes and relationships as arrows that connect the nodes and point to "what will happen next". A Cmap provides a comprehensive overview of the network of relationships and gives us a way to judge the relative importance of a prediction in making sense of the future. Connectedness is a measure of coherence and a prediction with many links is one that people believe will have significant explanatory power. The most consequential predictions in a network are those with the largest number of multiple links to others. (See Cmaps, Scenarios and Policy Debates at document link below.) Cmaps and Florida's Megatrends The initial entries in the database were a hundred or so predictions and forecasts drawn from Florida's Megatrends: Critical Issues in Florida by David R. Colburn and Lance deHaven. All the predictions were either the causes or consequences of other predictions and these causal relationships were diagrammed in a series of Cmaps that capture the main arguments and principal themes of the books. Some of the Megatrends predictions were more important than others. The Cmaps identified 17 which had the greatest "explanatory reach" and one of these 17 was linked (directly or indirectly) to most of the others. The most inter-connected prediction was the forecast that a huge number of baby boomers will retire to Florida. Huge numbers of baby boomers will retire to Florida. Florida will gain population through internal migration. Rural areas will be overrun by urban sprawl. Infrastructure investment will lag behind growth. Tax revenues will fall short of public needs State and local governments will seek new sources of revenue. Tax reform will falter on fairness issues. Florida will underfund education, health care and social services. Cash-strapped communities will cut back on services and facilities. Seniors will demand better eldercare Seniors will become politically active. Minorities will outnumber whites. Minority interests will conflict with white priorities. Florida politics will be highly contentious International trade and technology will become important to state's economy. Florida's economy will depend less on tourism, agriculture and construction. Florida will become more Sunbelt than Southern. Cmaps contain clusters of related predictions that coalesce around the well-connected. These clusters define themes. One prominent cluster in the Megatrend Cmaps was organized around the prediction that tax revenue will fall short of public needs. The expectation of a tax shortfall is foreseen to lead to lagging investment in infrastructure and to the under-funding of education, health care and other public services. These chronic and accumulating deficiencies in public sector spending will spur the ongoing search for new sources of revenue, but these efforts will be frustrated by the repeated failure of the legislature to devise a rational tax system that most Floridians accept as equitable. The theme gets its name -- Tax Gridlock -- from the resulting stalemate. The reductions in services for the elderly will affect one of the state's dominant demographic and economic groups. The size of Florida's over-sixty population (4.2 million) means that seniors will play a critical role in state elections. Almost a third of Floridians age 60 and older are registered to vote, and more than 40 percent did vote in the 2006 election, according to the Florida Department of Elder Affairs. A condensed version of the Megatrends Cmap is presented in two somewhat overlapping sections. (see attachments Cmap 1 and Cmap 2 below.) This Cmap indicates two outcomes if the Megatrend predictions follow their expected paths of cause-and-consequence: Florida will become more Sunbelt than Southern, and Florida politics will be highly contentious. Predictions continue to be added to the database as new issues come to the fore and old issues are redefined by events. Since the publication of Megatrends, for example, the collapse of the housing market and the subprime mortgage crisis have seriously depleted the wealth of many boomers -- and altered their plans for a Florida retirement. Only the most sanguine are now predicting that a massive influx of affluent boomers will bring about a quick and vigorous recovery of the real estate market. The prediction that retirees will become more politically active was also confirmed by the course of events, but its partisan coloration was influenced by the Great Recession. Heavy government borrowing to stabilize the economy roused fears among many seniors that the mounting debt would jeopardize the future of Social Security and Medicare. The Republican victories in the 2010 elections reflected the widely held belief that massive debt reduction will be achieved without cutting the entitlements of retirees. |
Cmaps and Networks of Predictions |
