>> The profound biological and ecological consequences of the Deepwater Horizon spill will take several decades to discover. Many species were spawning during the spill and egg larvae are highly vulnerable to oil toxicity. The loss of entire generations of marine life may, over time, propagate up the food chain. Already there is evidence of oil passing into plankton, which serves as the broad base of the food web. Toxins that do not kill outright can reduce reproduction, cause tumors, damage immune systems, and alter the genetic code in ways that may be inherited by subsequent generations. After the Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska, it took three years before the local herring fishery collapsed. Alaskan salmon were later found to have altered hormonal systems and shorebirds bred less frequently, produced smaller eggs, and their hatchlings died more often. Some bird populations have not recovered more than 20 years after the Exxon Valdez disaster due to food chain disruption. -- Nature: Deepwater Horizon -- one year on (Melissa Gaskill), 19April2011 Scientific American: How did the BP oil spill affect Gulf Coast wildlife and ecosystems? (David Biello), 20April2011
>> The Gulf of Mexico
oil spill will delay Florida’s
recovery by a least a year. UCF
economist Sean Snaith predicts the impact on tourism will eventually ripple through
other areas of the economy – especially businesses in the supply-chain for
tourism – companies not likely to receive compensation for their losses from
BP. Florida’s leisure and hospitality sectors
will not resume growth until 2012, he predicts. "The spill couldn't have happened at a
worse time, when Florida's
economy is extra susceptible because of the housing bust and fiscal crises in
state and local governments," Snaith observed. -- Institute for Economic Competitiveness/UCF:
Florida
and Metro Forecast 2010-2040 (Sean Snaith and others) July 2010 >> Florida’s
economy will be highly vulnerable to the BP disaster because of the state’s
dependence on sales tax revenue, especially from tourism. The 23 Gulf
Coast
counties could lose up to 200,000 tourism-related
jobs and nearly $11 billion in tourist spending. With economic recovery already
sluggish, the four Gulf
Coast
states might slip back into a recession – potentially dragging the rest of the U.S.
along. Long-term cumulative damage to the region’s economy could be comparable
to the closing of the auto plants and steel mills in the Midwest,
according to a Raymond James analysis. -- Stateline: Gulf
States fear
long-term fiscal effects of oil disaster (Stephen C. Fehr), 24June10 >> Uncertainty over oil
contamination will slow sales of beach front property and perhaps lower
property values. The combined value of Southwest Florida's residential real estate on or within
two miles of the coast is the highest of any region in the state, according to
the Florida Department of Revenue. Prices of prime beach front property,
comparatively resilient throughout the housing collapse, will be the most
vulnerable of all Florida's
real estate if the oil spill damages the coastal areas. Lowered property values
will reduce tax revenues of local governments, raising doubts about the ability
to meet municipal bond obligations. "This is very scary stuff," said
a Florida
bond dealer. -- Sarasota
Herald Tribune: Home closings mired in crude. (Tom
Bayles), 04July10. >> Florida’s credit
rating will be damaged if oil spills hurt tourism and beach front property
values. Lower bond ratings will increase the cost of borrowing for municipalities, worsening the state’s already fragile economic recovery. Borrowing costs will also rise as many bond issuers can no longer obtain default insurance. Before the recession more than half of muni bonds were issued with insurance. Today only 11 percent are covered. With declining revenue, more municipalities will be forced to renege on their costly debts. Once a rarity, defaults are occurring with increasing frequency around the country, while the number of munis now trading at a discount to face value has nearly doubled since before the recession. “There's a natural lag between economic stress and stress realized in municipal finances," says a muni bond analyst, and Florida’s bonds – once among the most highly regarded in the investment community, will now become a harder sell. -- Smart Money: Municipal bonds derailed (Russell
Pearlman), 17May10; Bloomberg Business Week: Florida, Gulf States may suffer from BP oil spill, Moody’s says.
(Darrell Preston), 18May10; St. Petersburg Times: Moody's warns oil impact on Florida could be worse than
recession. (Robert Trigaux), 18May20. >> Massive plume of oil from BP spill will last for an
indefinite period, and this uncertainty will continue to affect the residential
real estate market. Detection of a plume
at least 22 miles long, contradicts official assurances that three-fourths of
the oil was now gone. "I expect the hydrocarbon imprint of the BP
discharge will be detectable in the marine environment for the rest of my
life," said an FSU oceanographer. "The oil is not gone and is not
going away anytime soon.” Lack of government credibility will reinforce
the uncertainty that has already affected sales and prices of residential real
estate, even for inland properties. Damage
in the Panhandle has cut home prices by 5 to 15 percent, reports a study by Clear
Capital. -- St. Petersburg Times: Major study
says oil plume in Gulf of Mexico not going
away. (Craig Pittman), 20Aug2010; Tampa Bay Business Journal: Home sales
affected by oil spill. 20Aug2010
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