>> Many of the new businesses created in Florida will be started by Asian and Hispanic immigrants. Risk-takers by nature and necessity, the foreign-born now constitute about 30% of new entrepreneurs, a number that has increased significantly during the recession. They tend to start businesses where the growing immigrant populations are centered -- often in sprawling, heavily suburbanized regions in the South and Southwest. The strip mall is a new business incubator offering minority start-ups cheap rent, ample parking, and locations within easy driving distance of affordable ethnic neighborhoods. While two Florida cities rank in the top ten metropolitan areas with high levels of immigrant entrepreneurial activity -- Miami (#5) and Orlando-Kissimmee (#9) -- the state as a whole should rank higher because of its large immigrant population. Tampa (#14) and Jacksonville (#21) trailed national leaders Atlanta, Nashville and Houston. An anti-immigrant bias can suppress entrepreneurial growth. Many of the economically ravaged Rust Belt cities have seen little business activity by Hispanics and Asians because of pervasive attitudes toward cultural “outsiders”. -- New Geography: The best cities for minority entrepreneurs (Joel Kotkin), 31March2011 > > Florida’s middle-aged unemployed will need jobs to support themselves but the few available will be low-paying, unsteady and lacking health insurance and other benefits. Prolonged periods of unemployment force those laid off in mid-career to dip into their savings and take on debt in order to survive. Many are already carrying a heavy debt burden with mortgages and car payments. With high-paying jobs in short supply, those lucky enough to find work will rarely be paid as much as they were before, making it harder to pay off past debts. Competition for entry-level jobs will be severe because younger people may have more up-to-date skills and will work for lower pay. Paying for medical care and prescription drugs will be an ongoing struggle at the time of life when health care costs will increase. Those in poor health will find it difficult to get and keep any kind of employment. Unprepared financially for retirement, many in middle-age who are now jobless will be coping with impoverished old age. >> Future retirees will be poorer than current retirees. Workers are saving less than their parents and grandparents; the present savings rate of 5 percent is unlikely to rise to the 8 percent level attained in the 1980s. With less generous Social Security benefits in the years ahead, and rising costs of health care, retirement will be a struggle for many now working. Lower private sector saving rate will have the same impact on the economy as a higher government budget deficit. -- Seeking Alpha: Workers will be much less prepared for retirement in the future (Dean Baker), 15Feb2011 >>Florida’s population growth in coming years will be about half what it was before the Great Recession. Broken nest eggs and underwater mortgages will limit the in-migration of retirees, with the “new normal” growth rate reaching 200 to 250 thousand, rather than 400 to 500 thousand by 2012 and after. -- Sarasota Herald Tribune: Economist Hank Fishkind predicts migration won’t crank up again until 2012. (Michael Pollick), 21Jan2011. >> With two-thirds of Boomers unprepared financially for retirement, it will be exceedingly difficult for Congress to balance the budget by means of entitlement cuts, predicts Jim Bacon, author of Boomergeddon. In tough economic times, many Boomers are having a hard time just to avoid bankruptcy and foreclosure, let alone plan for retirement. They belong to the “sandwich generation” – required to be care-givers for aging parents while supporting adult children who are burdened with heavy college debt but unable to find work. Strapped financially, and heavily in debt, most Boomers are unable to put enough money in retirement accounts, and many no longer have defined benefit plans. They also lack adequate health insurance at a time in life when health concerns begin to require attention. Retirement at age 65 is out of the question, but many who are willing to continue working have lost their jobs or are working only part-time, often at reduced hourly pay. The scale and urgency of the problem -- 10,000 will turn 65 every day for the next two decades -- will confront the U.S. with a major political and economic issue. --Seeking Alpha: Can the Boomers retire? (Jim Bacon), 31Dec2010; CNN: Will the Boomers be able to retire?, 31Dec2010 >> Areas with diversified, new economy industries will be the principal gainers in migration once the housing market stabilizes and the economy recovers. But currently, migration within the U.S. is at its lowest point since World War II, because would-be movers are unable to find financing to buy a new home, buyers for their existing homes, or a new job in more desirable areas. Areas in Florida that experienced the greatest recent migration declines were those that reaped the most migrants during the mid-decade housing bubble. But losses in the Miami metro area were offset by international migration. -- The Brookings Institution: The great American migration slowdown(William H. Frey), 09Dec09 >> Multi-generational households will continue to increase, reversing a 40 year trend. A growing immigrant population will contribute to the increase, as will high unemployment and foreclosure rates and delays in new family formation as young adult children lack the means to buy their own houses. The trend will affect all ages, especially the elderly and the young. About one in five adults 25 to 34 now live in a multigenerational household, and one in five adults ages 65 and older. – Pew Research Center: The return of the multi-generational family households. 18March10; Wall Street Journal: Great recession is a double whammy for downwardly mobile parents and jobless children (Mary Pilon), 05April10; Palm
Beach Post: Homes bulging as Floridians move back in with parents.
(Kimberly Miller), 10April10 >> A cultural generation gap will pit younger Latinos against white baby boomers and older adults in a competition for increasingly scarce public resources. Ethnic tensions are likely to flare up when seniors are predominantly white while young people are predominantly non-white. In Florida, slightly less than half the young people are white, compared to nearly 80 percent of the seniors – a gap of about 30 percent. Among the other states, the gap is greatest in Arizona (40%). Nevada (34%) , California (33%) , Texas (32%) and New Mexico (31%) share similar demographic characteristics. These are the hot spots likely to see the enactment of punitive anti-immigrant legislation and large turnouts for Tea Party protests. – The Brookings Institution: Will Arizona beAmerica’s future? (William H. Frey), 28Apr10 >> Young educated whites will move to the cities in search of jobs and shorter commutes, leaving the suburbs increasingly populated by older adults and minorities. This concentration will make the suburbs the focal point for cultural and generational conflict. -- St. Petersburg Times: Young whites fleeing the suburbs (AP), 09May10 >> Prolonged recession will put many older seniors in economic peril, as the cost of living increases without a corresponding adjustment in Social Security benefits. There will be a sharp rise in the number of seniors needing food, shelter and emergency financial assistance for rent and utilities. Those with a place to live are often taking care of children or grandchildren, and providing refuge for family members who lost their jobs. – adding to the financial stress. Attempts to find work to make ends meet will be thwarted by age discrimination, their physical frailties and disabilities, and competition from the huge number of unemployed young people. The fast growth of the age 85+ demographic group in Florida will severely strain the ability of government and private agencies to cope with the demand. -- Jacksonville.com: Recession catches up with seniors (Deidre Conner), 05July10 >> Job insecurity and economic uncertainty will alter people’s values, placing less emphasis on work and consumption, more emphasis on family and community life. According to survey by Wayne Hochwarter (FSU College of Business), almost half (48%) said the recession increased their appreciation for the families, 37% said the recession caused them to think work isn’t as important as it once was, and 23% said they became more aware of an “over-commitment to work at the expense of family and creation.” A large majority (70%) said most days at work “never seem to end” as employers expect them to do more with less. Said one middle age manager laid off by his longtime employer -- “I broke my back for this company, missed my kids growing up, and for what? Nothing!” Hochwarter predicts that this value shift will continue as more Millennial Generation employees (those born between the mid-70s and early 2000s, will enter the work force bringing fundamentally different attitudes toward work and their personal lives. A similar shift is underway in Japan where a stagnating economy and high job loss has produced a generation of young people which rejects the appeal of growth-driven consumerism. A number of books have appeared recently in Japan with titles such as Rebellion of the Simple Lifestyle Clan and The Young Generation That Doesn’t Want Much. -- FSU College of Business: Americans are rethinking role of work amid painful recession (Linda Potvin), October 2010; Financial Times: How to cultivate a growth industry (Harry Eyres), 15Oct2010 >> Florida will be one of 9 to 11 super regions emerging where most of the nation’s population growth will be concentrated. Florida's super region will look like an "H" with density along each coast and I-4 as the connector. Others include the broad region of Birmingham to Atlanta to Charlotte to Richmond, or San Francisco to San Diego. Or Eugene, Ore., stretching north to Vancouver, a super region dubbed Cascadia. -- St. Petersburg Times: Planning for a 'super region' in central Florida's future (Robert Trigaux), 30June10 >> Where highly mobile, educated young people choose to live will be important in deciding the economic future of a region. Youth-magnet cities will gain an enviable cultural allure and a labor-market edge. When the U.S. economy regains its strength, migration will accelerate with big cities (especially those in the Northeast and on the West Coast) attracting most young adults because of better job prospects. Atlanta and other Sunbelt favorites – such as Naples – will lose some of their appeal. Migration experts predict that post-recession magnet cities will includeWashington, DC; Seattle, New York, Portland, OR, Austin, San Jose, Denver,Durham, Dallas, Chicago and Boston. -- Wall Street Journal: The next youth-magnet cities (Sue Shellenbarger), 30Sept09 >> Youth magnet cities will also be among the most wired. Florida's most wired -- Orlando and Miami -- are slipping behind others in the race to boost broadband adoption, add to the number of high-speed internet providers, and expand the number of wi-fi hot spots. Forbes 2010 ranking include Orlando (#9) and Miami (#17), but both have slipped since 2009. Raleigh, N.C. jumped to first place from fifteenth. Orlando is generally competitive in all three measures, but Miami's position is precarious because it ranks high only in the number of service providers. -- Forbes: America's most-wired cities. 03Mar10 >> Cities that are “youth magnets” will have an economic advantage.Two Florida cities rank high as “youth magnets” – urban areas that attract recent college graduates because they are “cool places to live.” Tampa ranks right behind Portland. Oregon –one of the prototypical youth magnet cities. Sarasota attracts nearly as many of the young and educated as does Denver. Cape Coral makes the list as well, but near the bottom with Kansas City and Des Moines. This demographic group is one of the most avidly sought because the education level of its workforce is one of the most important factors in a city’s economic success. According to Next Generation Consulting, young professionals are drawn to cities with the best combination of affordable cost of living, high earning potential, environmental quality, educational opportunities, after hours attractions, convenient transportation and racial/cultural diversity. Sixty cities were identified as the most attractive, and three were in Florida – Gainesville, Orlando and Jacksonville. -- Wall Street Journal: “Youth Magnet” cities hit midlife crisis (Conor Dougherty), 16-17May09 |
Demographic Trends |
