>> Farm workers living in Florida will avoid seasonal jobs in Georgia, fearful of the state’s new anti-immigration law. Georgia’s farmers will be unable to find workers during critical harvest time, causing huge losses for the state’s $1.1 billion industry. The economic toll in Georgia will influence outcome of renewed effort in Florida to adopt Arizona-style measures following the Supreme Court’s go-ahead. -- NPR: Georgia farmers blame new immigration law for lack of workers (Bill Chappell), 27May2011 >> Shortage of agricultural workers will speed the transition to mechanized planting and harvesting. Mechanization will lead to less diversity in the fruits and vegetables offered to consumers because machine picking requires varieties that are more uniform in shape and size and less vulnerable to damage during harvest. Mechanized farming will also shrink the number of jobs in the agricultural sector. -- The Ledger: Blueberries going strong, but clouds on the horizon (Kevin Bouffard) 24April2011 >> China will greatly expand exports of citrus, cutting into market share of Florida and Brazil. In an effort to stimulate the poor, rural economy of western China, the government will vastly expand the production of citrus as an export product. China already has more citrus acreage than Florida and Brazil together and is a major exporter of tangerines, pomelos, and apple juice. Competition from OJ imported from China will hurt the prices Florida’s citrus producers receive from Tropicana and other big processors. But the rapid take-over of the U.S. citrus market will not occur until Chinese OJ tastes less bitter and the trees produce greater juice yields. -- The Ledger: Florida Citrus Commission will evaluate the chances of Chinese market domination by 2015. (Kevin Bouffard), 03Jan2011.>> Florida agriculture sector will lose market share because of freezes, especially citrus growers and tropical fish farmers who face economic damage, both short and long term, predicts UF ag economist Thomas Spreen. Fish farmers’ losses (over 70 percent so far this winter) will allow low-cost producers in Asia to capture an even bigger share of the U.S. market—now 60 percent. Crop losses will boost citrus prices 5 to 10 percent, but the short-term gain will lead to long term negative consequences, Spreen fears. Higher farm prices will push up the retail price of orange juice, Florida’s biggest citrus commodity, shrinking consumer demand and continuing a cycle that shows worrying signs of persistence. OJ sales have declined each month for nearly a year as retail prices have risen. Citrus losses will include not only freeze-damaged fruit that will drop from the tree before harvest, but loss of juice content for fruit that remain on the tree. This year’s freezes will also lead to lower crops next year as frost kills leaves that would otherwise blossom. Another long-term threat, Spreen foresees, is that the declining Florida citrus harvest will encourage China and other international competitors to expand their citrus industries. -- The Ledger: Freeze brings growers challenges – farmers battered by cold face economic damage, possible loss of market share. (Kevin Bouffard), 29Dec2010) >> Declining demand for orange juice will instigate greater cooperation between Florida and Brazil. As consumption of orange juice slackens in both North American and European markets, Florida and Brazil – which together produce 90 percent of the world’s supply -- will look for ways to collaborate in generic marketing campaigns and, possibly, in research on joint economic issues, disease control and agricultural production. – The Ledger.com: As demand declines, Florida and Brazil ready to partner on OJ. (Kevin Bouffard), 08Apr10 >>Citrus greening will be a tipping point for the Florida citrus industry unless an international research effort quickly succeeds in finding a remedy. Growers who are already under threat from real estate developers, foreign competition, hurricanes and other infestations (canker and Medfly) could see the rapid collapse of the entire industry, warns one veteran grower. "It is a disease so serious that production could be dirven so low, so quickly, we could hit a tipping point where we could no longer be a reliable source for orange juice." -- Sarasota Herald Tribune: The struggle to save citrus in Florida (Tom Bayles), 02Jan10 >> Citrus industry will contribute significantly to Florida’s economy as long as price increases make up for declining production. Despite loss of citrus groves to greening and development, the revenue has remained relatively constant at $9 billion annually over the past decade. However, the industry’s percentage contribution to the state’s overall economic growth is shrinking, though more stable over time than is tourism. The future of the industry will depend on solving the problem of citrus greening and on the willingness of consumers to continue paying higher prices for Florida’s citrus products. Orange juice sales may also fall as concern mounts about obesity, especially among children. -- The Ledger: Citrus economic impact is constant – the industry adds $9 billion to Florida’s economy, the same as it did 10 years ago. (Kevin Bouffard), 25Nov09; Los Angeles Times: Orange juice loses its wholesome image. (Karen Kaplan), 08Nov09 >> Florida agriculture will gain new strategic importance in case of a food price crisis. Peter Schwartz believes that there is a “high likelihood” of a crisis in food prices in the next few years, not because of a food shortage, but because of the global commodity markets. The wild price swings we have seen in oil could happen with food commodities when the buffer between supply and demand becomes too narrow. Under these circumstances, a bad harvest or a disruption in food shipments sets off a cycle of speculative trading, causing commodity prices to escalate. These higher prices get passed on to consumers, who must spend more of their income on food purchases – a reallocation of spending that ripples through the entire economy and stirs political unrest. One likely outcome for Florida farmers is rising prices for their products. – InseadKnowledge: Planning for the unthinkable. (Karen Cho), 28Aug09 >> Policies that promote local agriculture will help diversify Florida’s economy. Revising the definition of a “farm” for tax purposes (which now is biased in favor of large “factory” farms) will encourage agricultural “start-ups” that would grow for local consumption. Low-interest loans and other incentives will encourage small-scale farming in undeveloped areas, instead of golf course communities. Thriving agriculture in an area will create jobs for unemployed (and often unemployable) low-skill workers. – Sarasota Herald Tribune: Diversify the economy with local agriculture (Eric Ernst), 07Oct09 >> Global prices for phosphate will become increasingly volatile as Florida’s Bone Valley reserves near depletion.Readily available supplies of phosphorus, essential to agriculture, will start running out by the end of this century, just as a growing world population requires stepped-up food production. Phosphorus reserves are concentrated in a few regions of the world. The U.S. is the world’s second largest producer (after China), at 19 percent of the total, but 65 percent of that amount comes from a single source – Florida’s Bone Valley, which may not last more than a few decades. Nearly 40 percent of global reserves are controlled by Morocco – the “Saudi Arabia” of phosphorus. This concentration in a politically unstable part of the world is a geostrategic ticking bomb, as the risk of supply disruptions will threaten agricultural production around the world. Long before reserves are actually depleted, prices will begin to fluctuate wildly as speculators play the market. Scarcity and rising prices will make it profitable to recover phosphorus from urban and agricultural waste, replace lead plumbing so that solid waste is not contaminated by toxic metals, reduce erosion by better farming practices, and seek new reserves that are now too difficult and expensive to mine -- offshore, for example. -- Scientific American:Phosphorus – a looming crisis(David A. Vaccari), June 2009; USF/Florida Institute of Phosphate Research: How long will Florida’s phosphate mining go on? >> Florida's growers will diversify into peaches in search of a crop that is more profitable than citrus and less vulnerable to pests. A subtropical variant, developed by the University of Florida, can be sold at premium prices from late March to mid-May when crops in Georgia and South Carolina are not yet ripe. -- St. Petersburg Times:Florida's pest-weary orange growers turn to peaches (James Thorner), 20Dec09. >Rising temperatures during the growing season in Florida will affect the state's agricultural output and productivity. There is as least a 90 percent chance that the lowest growing season temperatures in the tropics and subtropics will, by the end of the century, be higher than the highest temperatures at present. That includes the southern U.S., according to a study that compared the results of 23 climate models. "Agriculture is the sector most likely to be affected by changes in climate," predicts agricultural economist Gerald Nelson, author of Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security: Impacts and Costs of Adaptation to 2050."Biological impacts on crop yields work through the economic system, resulting in reduced production, higher crop and meat prices, and a reduction in cereal consumption. This reductions means reduced calorie intake and increase childhood malnutrition," he foresees. -- Scientific American: Croplands may wither as global warming worsens. (David Biello), 09Jan10. |
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